The journey from there to here

The MSM has spun the conditions in Iraq by, among other things, referring to the terrorists that bomb fellow Iraqis and US troops as "insurgents". They have made it appear as if such "insurgency" was a popular movement in Iraq, and as if our troops are  in grave danger in Iraq by remaining there. An analysis of the facts would seem to indicate it just ain't so.

See, there are about 26 million people in Iraq. Assuming 50% of those are adults, that would leave 13 million. Assuming even 50% of those were angry at the United States for our occupation, that would leave 6.5 million. Assumning half of those are male, let's pare it down further, to 3.25 million.

Now, let's assume that of those 3.25 million, 10% were willing to take action, to strike against the United States. That would take us down to 325,000. If there were about 300,000 Iraqis armed against us, I think it would be fair to consider that a popular uprising.

Our troop levels in Iraq are at about 150,000, half of that number of Iraqis. Because guerilla warfare operates on a "strike and run" philosophy, and not on the principle of gaining ground or military targets, it is often necessary for an opposing force to OUTNUMBER the guerillas in a given nation. We have seen the effectiveness of rather small bands of guerilla warriors on many Latin American playing fields, certainly often enough to understand this fact well. It's their turf, and they know it better than we do, with all of the nooks and crannies.

The relatively small death count (YES, every death matters, but the fact that there will be deaths in combat pretty much falls into the "duh" category, doncha think?) would indicate that the uprisings in Iraq don't have NEAR those numbers. Furthermore, the number of Iraqi dead (about 30,000, according to the most reliable accounts) would indicate that there never WERE anywhere near those numbers.


Comments
on Dec 30, 2005

Looking at your numbers, It seems astounding that the pre-war army was over 1 million men!  IN Saddam's Iraq, he kep the men fed by keeping them in the military!

But even the worst case scenerio shows only about 16k terrorist, and the majority of them are foreigners and former Baathists (like the ones in German post WWII were Nazi's).  The MSM does not want you to see the man behind the curtain, just swallow their milk of prejudice.  That way you can remain compliant sheep like the Mikey Morons.

on Dec 30, 2005

I've seen stats skewed so wildly that I've quickly learned to look at the hard numbers on which they're based. And analyzing the numbers usually yields surprising results. I'm trying to get numbers to compare percentages of deaths from childhood illnesses with deaths from vaccines (I have a feeling the numbers will be comparable) for similar reasons.

on Jan 21, 2006
You mentioned 30.000 iraqis killed. But that figure (Iraq body count) actually included soldiers and militia killed during the invasion + civilians and guerillas and terrorists killed in the last, almost 3 years of warfare and also iraqi security forces.

At least half are actually civilians, meaning non combatants.

This means at best abt 15000 killed soldiers, militia, guerillas and terrorists (US enemies) with a probable of 3 wounded for every one killed, leaving 60.000 casulties.

US/Alliance casulties are as of now 2400+ killed and abt 8-9 wounded for every soldier killed, meaning that abt 20.000 troops have been knocked out.

Put also on top of that SOF-personnel killed and unaccouted for, plus mercenaries of, for example the Blackwater, Dynacorps and Aegis companies and on top of that, scores of killed (hundreds every month) US-loyal police, securityforces and armypersonnel.

It is not even sure that the US are really having a very good bodycount. If lucky, they put maybe 3-4 iraqis out of action for every 2 of their own, this happens even though they enjoy a complete superiority in numbers, informationtechnology, weapons technology and have (of course) air superiority and modern training and equipment.

So, what are the US-alliance doing wrong? Beats me...