The journey from there to here
Published on December 1, 2007 By Gideon MacLeish In Misc

As the debate on Vista grows from the angry to the comical, I am beginning to notice an interesting trend. More people that I speak with about computing have expressed an interest in trying alternative operating systems and hardware. In fact, I am of the opinion that in 5-6 years' time, you'll be able to walk into your local electronics store and choose between a variety of operating systems, all with approximately equal levels of functionality. Games, again in my perfect little world, will be written for these varying platforms. While I feel Microsoft will probably still be the dominant O/S, I see their numbers hovering in the high 60-low 70 percent rather than the 90 percent they enjoy now.

And of course, if I'm right, and if this happens, there will be a lot of users cheering the death of their stranglehold, without acknowledging what Microsoft's dominance has brought us.

Microsoft's tenure as the primary O/S on the vast majority of machines has helped standardize PC computing to allow development and innovation that could never have occured if developers were still arguing about software platforms. It helped bring about the commercialization of the Internet and make the home computer ubiquitous as what someone learned in their office could be carried home with them with no difficulty. But Microsoft is finding itself where many monopolies are at the end of their usefulness as a monopoly -- unjustly villainized and stereotyped.

Monopolies, for all of their negatives, bring about innovation. It was a monopoly in regional markets that brought about the first Transcontinental railroad. It was a monopoly that brought our phone service to the level that it is at today. What a monopoly does is allows fewer resources to be spent on advertising and more on research and development. After all, if you're the only game in town, what good's a print ad going to do you?

But in a free market, monopolies and the principles of free markets (however far we have gotten off the course, we are still, basically, a free market in many areas) eventually find themselves obsolete. Once the innovation is done, once they have gotten to a comfortable point and expansion opportunities become limited, monopolies become bloated. With no competition, they can charge whatever they want and become increasingly less efficient at customer service. Once a customer has grown dependent on their product, the monopolies can lead them anywhere.

This, in my opinion, is where Microsoft is and why competition can help correct its course. Windows Vista has a number of compelling features and is, by many standards, a great O/S. But by just as many other standards, it sucks. I don't need to go over the pros and cons here; there's no shortage of articles espousing either position to be found, both on JU and the Internet at large.

Once competition enters the picture, the companies that once were monopolies improve. They didn't get to be dominant by being stupid, and they adapt to the business environment in which they find themselves. As the ex-monopolies improve, so does the industry. And in the end, the consumer benefits.

 


Comments
on Dec 03, 2007

I agree with you, and disagree.  I agree with your premise, but disagree with your prediction for Microsoft - at least in the short term. Microsoft lived through the IBM bust, and knows the pitfalls.   Ansd as long as they are able, they will continue to exploit their monopoly.  The grumbling you hear is from the technically adept, not the normal user, and yes, most of them will explore alternatives.  But Microsoft knows how to use a monopoly to its best advantage.  And I am not talking windows here.

Office. That is the one that will hold them for years to come.  And the reason they do not back out of the Mac market is so they do not get clobbered with the monopoly law suit (see?  We support other OSes!).  In time, Microsoft will have lost the imprint of Bill gates (as all companies eventually lose their founders imprint when they get to a certain size and the founders move on).  Then they will be ripe for the picking.  Until then, no, they will play it to the edge, but not beyond, and keep their monopoly intact.

on Dec 03, 2007
The grumbling you hear is from the technically adept, not the normal user, and yes, most of them will explore alternatives.


No, I hear grumbling from normal users, and as you know, I'm in a position to know.
on Dec 03, 2007
The software industry naturally gravitates. The software industry WANTS an OS monopoly. Why? Cause it's cheaper for everyone. The quality and innovation have nothing to do with it.

---- Developers
No software development firm WANTS to have the OS market divided 33% / 33% / 33%. They'd much rather have it divided 90% / 5% / 5%. Why? Cause they can safely ignore the 10% minority if they choose to. When writing software for Windows, it's already difficult enough to test it on the HUGE array of possible hardware/Windows version combinations that might be possible to your users. Development and testing costs money. If you had to worry about many more operating systems it would be costly. With an OS monopoly, you can focus on the large majority of users, and then expand into the niche markets *if* you want to. If there were 3 choices of equal market share, your development cost would be significantly higher, just to reach the same user base.

---- Businesses
People talk all the time about how Microsoft costs companies lots of money and how much they could save by switching to alternatives. But the cost of the software is a MINOR cost to a medium/large business. The cost of maintaining multiple platforms is a much more significant factor. IT personell ...multiple software versions....tracking/auditing the different licenses.......this stuff costs more money than the premium that Microsoft may charge.

---- End Users / Home Users
First, your software would cost more (most people who argue other wise, pirate their software), due to the more expensive development costs. Compatibility with other people would suffer. Even if you just think about visiting your relatives house on the holidays: "you're using Windows, sorry I only know Mac"....."You're using Ubuntu....its similar to RedHat, let me try to fix it for you.....oops it wasnt 100% the same and I screwed it up, but now I've drank too much eggnog"

It's very similar to an actual spoken language. If everyone in a country, only spoke 1 or 2 of 3 different "official languages", the impact on every day life would be tremendous.


on Dec 03, 2007
No, I hear grumbling from normal users, and as you know, I'm in a position to know.


I should have said the knowledgeable grumbling as I hear grumbling from the users as well. However, the normal user will never switch. They do not have the technical savy to do so.
on Dec 03, 2007
Monopolies are great when you own all the railroads and utilities.  They're even better when you have hotels on all of your property.  It's even better when you're friends with the banker and they'll slip you a $500 when things are tight.  Whose idea was it to have an electric banker?  That takes all the fun out of it. 
on Dec 03, 2007
Monopolies are great when you own all the railroads and utilities. They're even better when you have hotels on all of your property. It's even better when you're friends with the banker and they'll slip you a $500 when things are tight. Whose idea was it to have an electric banker? That takes all the fun out of it.


I like to control a corner. Seems you get a higher percentage of folks landing there. I especially like to get Baltic and Mediterranean early because they're cheap, development's cheap, and everyone lands on them.

I usually let my wife be the banker. That way I can tell everyone I slept my way to the top!

No software development firm WANTS to have the OS market divided 33% / 33% / 33%.


I don't ever think it will be 33/33/33. For practical purposes, I believe M$ will still dominate the market, just not at 90%. Look at the telecommunications industry. Bell still dominates, just not to the level it did.

What I see is a sort of universal scripting of system files so that competing operating systems can put out products that are functionally compatible even if they differ on the design level.

However, the normal user will never switch. They do not have the technical savy to do so


See this is where I disagree. They're already being forced to switch. Vista requires a pretty serious learning curve. And while I LOVE Office 2007, I know a lot of people who do not; in fact, I often bundle refurbished computers with openoffice because it is functionally similar to older versions of Office.
on Dec 03, 2007

See this is where I disagree. They're already being forced to switch. Vista requires a pretty serious learning curve. And while I LOVE Office 2007, I know a lot of people who do not; in fact, I often bundle refurbished computers with openoffice because it is functionally similar to older versions of Office.

But the Business world revolves around MS Office, and MS makes sure that knock offs dont quite work right.  SO are they going to learn 2 systems?  or 1?  My money is on the one.

on Dec 03, 2007
Illinois is actually the most landed on property in Monopoly, because it is 14 (two 7s) away from Jail. I actually tested this, and it's true.
on Dec 03, 2007
But the Business world revolves around MS Office, and MS makes sure that knock offs dont quite work right.


I've never had significant problems with OpenOffice.

Illinois is actually the most landed on property in Monopoly, because it is 14 (two 7s) away from Jail. I actually tested this, and it's true.


I've never had significant problems with my Baltic/Mediterranean grabbing scheme!